Peak Oil Fact or Fiction ?
Maximum rate of global Peak oil when the global petroleum extraction production rate reaches decline where this concept is based on individual oil wells observed production rates and related oil wells. In an oil field the total production rate over time usually grows exponentially until the rate peaks and then declines—sometimes rapidly—until the field is depleted. The curver below gives a good idea when peak oil depression will occur.
Above curve is derived from Hubbert curve where it is applied to total oil domestic production rate of a nation and it can simply applied to global rate of petroleum production. Peak oil is refered as point of maximum production on the other hand depletion refers to duration of reducing reserves and supply.
In 1956 M. King Hubbert created this model to predict United States oil production. It predicted US peak oil to during 1965 to 1970. Hubbert peak theory with reasonable accuracy predicted peak oil where decline oil production from oil wells, fields, regions, and countries, and Hubbert peak theory has applied to other limited-resource productions. According to the Hubbert model, the production rate of a limited resource (oil or others) will follow a roughly symmetrical logistic distribution curve (sometimes incorrectly compared to a bell-shaped curve) based on the limits of exploitability and market pressures. Various modified versions of his original logistic model are used, using more complex functions to allow for real world factors. While each version is applied to a specific domain, the central features of the Hubbert curve (that production stops rising and then declines) remain unchanged, albeit with different profiles.
Current world econony is heavly dependent on low cost and highly availiable oil. Peak oil production decline will severely increase the price of oil to negatily effect the global economy as seen in late 2000's global economic slow down. The degree of economic damage to importing countries will largely depend on how rapidly oil imports decline post-peak, if political and economic changes only occur in reaction to high prices and shortages rather than in reaction to the threat of a peak. Oil exports drop much more quickly than production drops due to domestic consumption increases in exporting countries according to the Export Land Model. With approaching peak oil that will cause supply shortfalls, that in turn to would cause the oil prices to increase sharply unless demand is reduced with conservation and alternative energy use.
United States, China and other major oil-consuming nations needs to change lifestyles and develope major investments on alternative energy before 2020 global peak production decline to avert any major pending economic crisis spinning out of oil dependency. When we are approach 2020 prices of oil is expected to peak from 2010 values. With pending peak oil to approach in 2020 significant national transfermation to alternative energy is needed or a global depression is predicted. With the rise of oil prices global industrial civilization will collapse with potentially leading to large population declines within a short period. Peak oil is fact not fiction and United States as the most energy consuming nation needs to transform itself to alternative energy or go thru enevitable economic depression what United States is going thru in 2008 be mild in comparision to what we will experice by 2020 if major alternative energy initiatives not implemented. To answer Peak Oil Fact or Fiction ? It is a fact.
